The Black Swan : The Impact of the Highly Improbable

作者：NassimNicholasTaleb

出版社：Penguin

副标题：TheImpactoftheHighlyImprobable

出版年：2008-2-1

页数：400

定价：99.0

装帧：Paperback

ISBN：9780141034591

内容简介
 · · · · · ·

`Great fun … brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious,

`Hugely enjoyable – compelling’

`Idiosyncratically brilliant’

`A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected’

`A deeply intelligent, provocative book’

‘Like the conversation of raconteur … hugely enjoyable – compelling … Beware the Black Swan’ –This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

‘The Black Swan confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot’ –This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

‘A deeply intelligent, provocative book … Taleb succeeds in

bringing sceptical empiricism to the masses’ –This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

‘A richly enjoyable read with an important message’ –This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

‘A provocative macro-trend tome in the tradition of The Wisdom of

Crowds and The Tipping Point’ –This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

作者简介
 · · · · · ·

纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布（Nassim Nicholas Taleb），一生专注于研究运气、不确定性、概率和知识。他既是文学随笔家，又是经验主义者，又是理智的数理证券交易员，目前担任阿姆赫斯特马萨诸塞大学随机科学系教授。他的上一本畅销书《随机致富的傻瓜》（Fooled by Randomness）以20种语言出版。大部分时候他生活在纽约。

评论 ······

作者的中心思想也不过一章 却外围耗费如此口舌

打开新世界

2010-09-11 看过。一大本书，内含很多例证反反复复地讲了一个道理——基于高斯钟形曲线的模型和作者自己模型的差异，大致为前者强调确定性、不能预测黑天鹅、局部错误但致命，后者强调不确定性、针对黑天鹅进行预测、讲求整体正确。语言通俗，选例丰富，重在描述，没有方程——虽然篇幅很长，但考虑到长久以来对于高斯钟形曲线的依赖，以及各种对黑天鹅的误解，如此详细的论述可能对大部分读者来说是必要的。

Changed my way of thinking

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