Prediction Machines, Updated and Expanded: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence

Book Description

Named one of “The five best books to understand AI” by The Economist

The impact AI will have is profound, but the economic framework for understanding it is surprisingly simple.

Artificial intelligence seems to do the impossible, magically bringing machines to life—driving cars, trading stocks, and teaching children. But facing the sea change that AI brings can be paralyzing. How should companies set strategies, governments design policies, and people plan their lives for a world so different from what we know? In the face of such uncertainty, many either cower in fear or predict an impossibly sunny future.

But in Prediction Machines, three eminent economists recast the rise of AI as a drop in the cost of prediction. With this masterful stroke, they lift the curtain on the AI-is-magic hype and provide economic clarity about the AI revolution as well as a basis for action by executives, policy makers, investors, and entrepreneurs.

In this new, updated edition, the authors illustrate how, when AI is framed as cheap prediction, its extraordinary potential becomes clear:

• Prediction is at the heart of making decisions amid uncertainty. Our businesses and personal lives are riddled with such decisions.
• Prediction tools increase productivity—operating machines, handling documents, communicating with customers.
• Uncertainty constrains strategy. Better prediction creates opportunities for new business strategies to compete.

The authors reset the context, describing the striking impact the book has had and how its argument and its implications are playing out in the real world. And in new material, they explain how prediction fits into decision-making processes and how foundational technologies such as quantum computing will impact business choices.

Penetrating, insightful, and practical, Prediction Machines will help you navigate the changes on the horizon.

中文：

书名：Prediction Machines, Updated and Expanded: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence

被《经济学人》评为理解人工智能的五本最佳书籍之一

人工智能的影响将是深远的，但理解它的经济框架出人意料地简单。

人工智能似乎完成了不可能的事情，神奇地将机器带入生活–驾驶汽车、交易股票和教育儿童。但面对人工智能带来的巨大变化，可能会让人陷入瘫痪。公司应该如何制定战略，政府应该如何设计政策，人们应该如何为一个与我们所知如此不同的世界规划自己的生活？面对这样的不确定性，许多人要么畏缩在恐惧中，要么预测一个不可能的光明未来。

但在《预测机器》一书中，三位著名经济学家将人工智能的崛起重新描述为预测成本的下降。凭借这一高超的笔触，他们拉开了人工智能是魔术的炒作的帷幕，并提供了有关人工智能革命的经济清晰度，以及高管、政策制定者、投资者和企业家采取行动的基础。

在这个新的更新版中，作者们展示了当人工智能被框定为廉价预测时，其非凡的潜力是如何变得显而易见的：

• 在不确定的情况下，预测是做出决策的核心。我们的企业和个人生活中充斥着这样的决定。
• 预测工具可提高工作效率–操作机器、处理文档、与客户沟通。
• 不确定性制约着战略。更好的预测为新的商业战略创造了竞争机会。

两位作者重新设置了背景，描述了这本书产生的惊人影响，以及它的论点和影响在现实世界中是如何发挥的。在新的材料中，他们解释了预测如何适应决策过程，以及量子计算等基础技术将如何影响商业选择。

具有穿透力、洞察力和实用性的预测机器将帮助您驾驭地平线上的变化。