The Black Swan : Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Frag

作者：NassimNicholasTaleb

出版社：RandomHouseTradePaperbacks

副标题：SecondEdition：TheImpactoftheHighlyImprobable：Withanewsection："OnRobustnessandFragility"

出版年：2010-5-11

页数：480

定价：USD17.00

装帧：Paperback

ISBN：9780812973815

内容简介
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A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.

*2nd Edition, With a new essay: "On Robustness and Fragility"

作者简介
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, randomness, human error, probability, and the philosophy of knowledge. He managed to transform his interests into three successful careers, as a man of letters, businessman-trader-risk manager, and university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor at New York University's Polytechnic Institute and Principal of Universa. His books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan have been published in 31 languages. He is widely recognized as the foremost thinker on probability and uncertainty. Taleb lives mostly in New York.

评论 ······

4- 作者太唠叨了。

现在回想起来，这本书给我的最大收获竟然是爱上了Horowiz与Rachmaninov，(⑉°з°)-♡ 哈哈哈😄

washington university现任校长曾经推荐的。对probability的新的解读，用语生动。

1.黑天鹅可能是自然的（譬如传染病，大地震，台风），也可能人为制造出来的（金融危机）。由于现代社会的复杂性+耦合性，使得人造黑天鹅更频繁。2.关于预测：如果是以对历史的观察来推测，黑天鹅则是无法预测的；但如果对人造黑天鹅的本质有所了解，你是可以预料（大概地了解其概率）到黑天鹅的——对屠夫来说，火鸡的第1001天并不是黑天鹅事件。3.由于未知的未知的存在，要使用不对称性——把自己放在一个好结果比坏结…

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