作者：CharlesKurzman
出版社：HarvardUniversityPress
出版年：2004-4-30
页数：304
定价：USD27.95
装帧：Hardcover
ISBN：9780674013285
内容简介
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The Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, would remain on the throne for the foreseeable future: This was the firm conclusion of a top-secret CIA analysis issued in October 1978. One hundred days later the shah – despite his massive military, fearsome security police, and superpower support – was overthrown by a popular and largely peaceful revolution. But the CIA was not alone in its myopia, as Charles Kurzman reveals in this penetrating work; Iranians themselves, except for a tiny minority, considered a revolution inconceivable until it actually occurred. Revisiting the circumstances surrounding the fall of the shah, Kurzman offers rare insight into the nature and evolution of the Iranian revolution – and into the ultimate unpredictability of protest movements in general. As one Iranian recalls, "The future was up in the air" – and through interviews and eyewitness accounts, declassified security documents and underground pamphlets, Kurzman documents the overwhelming sense of confusion that gripped pre-revolutionary Iran, and that characterises major protest movements. His book provides a striking picture of the chaotic conditions under which Iranians acted, participating in protest only when they expected others to do so too, the process approaching critical mass in unforeseen and unforeseeable ways. Only when large numbers of Iranians began to "think the unthinkable," in the words of the U.S. ambassador, did revolutionary expectations become a self-fulfilling prophecy. A corrective to 20-20 hindsight, this book reveals shortcomings of analyses that make the Iranian revolution – or any major protest movement – seem inevitable in retrospect.
作者简介
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Charles Kurzman is Professor of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
评论 ······
库兹曼从政治、动员结构、文化、经济和军事几个方面质疑了结构主义对于伊朗革命为何会成功的解释，提出了一种实际是从运动本身出发的反解释方法：运动之所以成功，是领袖的策略和其他因素使得运动本身具有可生产性（Viability)，这让本来不可想象的革命变得thinkable，大众对于革命成功的预期使得更多人参入到革命中并最终推翻了沙阿政权，这很类似于Singh在seizingpower中有关政变成败的观点…
全书的主要内容是驳论：详细叙述了伊朗革命的过程，每写一段就反驳一种解释革命爆发的理论。然后作者提出自己的理论：革命的过程是充满confusion的，在这种confusion主导的背景下，每个伊朗人都要进行viability的判断，当伊朗人判断其他人将会参与革命时，他们也会参与革命。作者的叙事和理论分析都是优秀的，不过我认为这是一本只写了一半的书：如果民众真的是一直在confusion环境下以对他人…
看得很快，前几章驳斥各类解释写得有条理，但kurzman自己给出的viability的解释牵强，类似于说一场革*/命能成功是因为大家觉得它能成功，即使这是很显然，或者也不那么显然的主客观认识上的龃龉；
看得很快，前几章驳斥各类解释写得有条理，但kurzman自己给出的viability的解释牵强，类似于说一场革*/命能成功是因为大家觉得它能成功，即使这是很显然，或者也不那么显然的主客观认识上的龃龉；
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